• Our Jump-2-Profit service is giving our members an edge

    Our Jump-2-Profit service is providing plenty of value priced winners for our members. The service takes into account scores of factors to identify the horse that has the best chance of winning a handicap chase or hurdle race, and gives a guide price which tells members the price they need to beat in order to secure good value.

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  • Get daily tissue prices from our Valuator service

    Backing winners is only one part of the way to be being a successful punter. The key ingredient ignored by most backers is the concept of value. In other words you need to be able to assess the probability of whether or not a horse will win or lose, and be able to express those probabilities as a set of odds.

    Our Valuator service (jump season edition) aims to provide a daily set of odds for every handicap hurdle and chase run in Great Britain and Ireland. The odds (expressed as decimal odds as on the betting exchanges) are our assessment of the 'true' odds of the horse winning or losing.

    The oddsline is generated from a statistical analysis, using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, from horses past performance data. It also takes into account situational factors such as track, course going, and race distance. Overall there are dozens of factors that are taken into account, and each factor has been derived from our in-depth research and analysis. Much of the research that has gone into the Valuator formula is contained in the many articles published on this website.

    The Valuator oddsline can be used as a guide to assess whether or not a horse is a value bet.

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  • Comments in running: horses that ‘stay on’ at the finish

    Given the paucity of data in British horse racing one has to exploit to the maximum all the available information in the form book. This requires a fair amount of imagination and hard labour. This isn’t the same as in other countries. In contrast to our punting cousins in the USA and Hong Kong, the British punter is definitely the poor relation in terms of data.

    What can the British punter do about this? Not much to be honest. There are some sectional time services available for some tracks but the data needs to be paid for. There is no data on horse’s weight, even though most if not all trainers weigh their horses regularly to see if they are fit. Therefore if, for example, you want to work out if a horse is seeing out its races well, there is no sectional times data and no data on whether the horse was fit enough to do itself justice in a finish.

    The only possible source of information about whether or not a horse is finishing off its races is the comments in the form book about the horse’s performance during a race. These comment use a fairly standard vocabulary and regularly report horses as either ‘stayed on’ or ‘stayed on well’ which might suggest that the horse kept going in the finishing stages or had a surge late on in the race. We have completed some detailed statistical analysis of these comments and unearthed some really interesting and hopefully profitable findings...

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  • The Kelly Formula

    Successful gamblers have two distinct advantages over their peers. They know when the odds are stacked in their favour and they know how much to bet in order to maximise their advantage. For example, Bill Benter who leads the most successful Hong Kong betting syndicate wins around $20m per year because he has worked out the true odds of a horse winning a race and uses that information to determine how much to bet. Regarding the latter Benter, like many other sophisticated punters, uses a mathematical formula called the Kelly Criterion to maximise his profits.

    The Kelly criterion is a formula that tells a gambler how much of their betting bank to bet on each round of a profitable gamble so as to maximise the growth rate of their wealth. The formula has been shown to work. For example, in a paper written in 1994 Bill Benter explained how he had used the Kelly formula to win several times his initial wealth in a sequence of around 2,500 horse races. Not bad! Other famous gamblers and investors like Edward Thorp used Kelly when counting cards at blackjack. The claim has also been made that well-known successful investors including Warren Buffett and Bill Gross also use Kelly methods.

    What is the Kelly formula?

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  • When is a horse well handicapped?

    Handicaps are one of my favourite races to bet. This wasn’t the case in my early years in racing. In those days I used to think that the best way to make my betting pay was to only ever bet in non-handicaps. My logic was sound enough. I reasoned that it was hard enough working out the best horse in a race. The extra complexity of then having to work out which horse was the best off at the weights sounded like a step too far. These days I’m more open minded and I treat handicap races as interesting puzzles, and far more rewarding than completing the days Sudoku in my morning newspaper!

    Handicap races also form the vast majority of a day's racing, especially over jumps. Strict adherence to a policy of only betting in non-handicaps over the sticks would mean that you would end up betting far too often than is good for you in novice chases and juvenile hurdle races. The other advantage of betting in handicaps in jump races is that most horses have exposed form. In other words each horse has ran a number of times and so you have a far idea of how good are horse is and some idea of its preferred conditions in terms of track, going, jockey and distance. is made up by such races. This is help from a form perspective and it helps to take out a bit of the guesswork when studying a race because you basically have more evidence to work with.

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Established in 2010, with scores of satisfied members, profitablebetting.co.uk aims to provide you with analysis, systems and strategies to help you make your racing pay. Our expert team adopt a systematic approach to betting and will provide you with systems, selections and information that will help to give you an edge. Join now for just £29.99 and receive a 12 month membership.

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Our Jump-2-Profit service aims to provide value based winners for our members. It takes into account scores of form factors and uses sophisticated statistical techniques to combine them into a probability score. The probability score selects the horse in a race that has the greatest chance of winning but also provides an estimate of the odds that would represent the true odds for the horse winning the race. Therefore if you bet the horse at odds greater than the true odds of the horse winning then you will have made a value bet. A punter who bets in this way should, in the long run, do better than one that ignores the concept of value. It is making value bets that is the key to profitable betting.

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Our unique Pace Ratings allow you to understand how a race is likely to be run, and which horses are likely to take an early lead. These ratings will be of considerable value to those interested in 'betting-in-running' or 'in-play' markets as horses that take an early lead are likely to contract in odds during the early part of a race. Draw analyst will also wish to note well drawn horses that have a record of breaking well and establishing an early lead.

The ratings are only available from this site and can be viewed daily.

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