By profitablebetting, Dec 4 2016 7:36AM
Nicky Henderson has been in the news recently for all the wrong reasons. He has had a torrid time of late with first the forced retirement of the brilliant Sprinter Sacre and then, worse still, the death at Cheltenham of the talented chaser Simonsig. November has certainly been a cruel month for Henderson and the team at Seven Barrows stables. They must be sincerely hoping that December will be better, and that the stable will enjoy its usual good form in the festive month.
By profitablebetting, Nov 12 2016 8:31AM
The jump race season is starting to get into top gear and it is about this time when it pays to do some serious research on the form book, and to make a list of the top horses to follow. These can either be backed each time they race or backed ante-post for a big race target.
By profitablebetting, Sep 5 2016 12:57PM
In the early 1960s, Nobel Prize winning economist Eugene Fama put forth the theory of efficient markets called the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The theory is simple but powerful. It states that markets correctly price the value of a stock, or any other commodity, correctly. In other words, the price of a stock is not too high or too low. The price reflects all known information at a point in time.
The theory has three versions: strong form, semi-strong form and weak form. I’ll focus on the strong and semi-strong forms of the theory. In strong form efficiency is where all information, public, personal and confidential, is instantly reflected in the prices. Therefore, punters are unable to achieve a competitive advantage. This degree of market efficiency implies that above average returns cannot be achieved regardless of a punters skill and access to information.
By profitablebetting, Sep 5 2016 12:39PM
At a recent trip to the races with friends I was asked if newspaper tipsters are any good, and were any in particular worth following. In reply I cited the basic statistic that all the main national newspaper tipsters make a loss overall because it is very hard to make a selection in every race, like the racing correspondents are asked to do, and to then to publish the tips in mass circulation newspapers. However, I did say that some do make a small profit from their naps. I was then asked “What is a nap?” I was getting a little tired of this conversation and lazily said that “it is just the tipsters best bet of the day, the one from all their tips that they think has the best chance of winning”. I didn’t add that sometimes the editor of the newspaper will insist that the nap is made for the big race, such as Derby, Grand National or a race that the newspaper is sponsoring or advertising. Nevertheless the statistics do show that tipsters do much better with their naps than for their daily selections.
By profitablebetting, Jul 23 2016 6:47AM
When I was a teenager I came up with a very simple betting system. I took a copy of the Racing Post and worked out which horse had been selected as a 'nap' by the most number of newspaper tipsters. My logic was that the newspaper correspondents were the real experts because they studied the form everyday and had all the best contacts. Therefore if anyone was going to get inside information then it would them. Alas I soon worked out that these so called experts were not particularly good tipsters and few of them managed to make a profit from backing horses. My early faith in newspaper tipsters took a further knock when I later heard a rumour that some racing correspondents tip or write up a horse in a positive way to give a free advert to a trainer to whom they owe a favour. Whether this is true or not I don't know but I've been suspicious of newspaper tipsters ever since. However, I have to say that I haven't really properly analysed whether my prejudice is justified or not.
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