• Time for a change? The ability of horses to adapt to new conditions

    I’m not a big fan of change. Some might say that this is because I’m at a certain stage of life. You know the one. The balding, fat and post-forty phase. The fact is though I’ve never really liked change. The adventure of foreign travel to me has always been stressful. Why waste your precious holiday time by going somewhere new when you know the place you went last year will be hard to beat? For the same reasons I also like to eat at the same restaurants when I go out. The last time I tried anywhere new I got food poisoning. For these reasons I’m suspicious of change, and especially when the only reason for making a change is because someone tells you ‘it’s time for a change’. Racehorses appear to share my view on life. Unfortunately their trainers keep on insisting that they need to embrace change and keeping trying out for them new race classes, new going or new distances. The data suggests that change is seldom profitable when it comes to horses encountering new race conditions.

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Our Jump-2-Profit service aims to provide value based winners for our members. It takes into account scores of form factors and uses sophisticated statistical techniques to combine them into a probability score. The probability score selects the horse in a race that has the greatest chance of winning but also provides an estimate of the odds that would represent the true odds for the horse winning the race. Therefore if you bet the horse at odds greater than the true odds of the horse winning then you will have made a value bet. A punter who bets in this way should, in the long run, do better than one that ignores the concept of value. It is making value bets that is the key to profitable betting.

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Our unique Pace Ratings allow you to understand how a race is likely to be run, and which horses are likely to take an early lead. These ratings will be of considerable value to those interested in 'betting-in-running' or 'in-play' markets as horses that take an early lead are likely to contract in odds during the early part of a race. Draw analyst will also wish to note well drawn horses that have a record of breaking well and establishing an early lead.

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